Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4336
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4336 · JFK → DCA
departs 10:10 PM ET · arrives 11:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 39%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 39%
Mon 10/5 18%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10pm departures from JFK are often late
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,300 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.