Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4340 LANDED 8:36 AM ET, ~7 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3

YX 4340 · LIT → MIA

took off 5:36 AM CT · landed 8:36 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 15h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↑ LIT is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from LIT are usually not late

Weather at each end

LIT (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4340 · LIT → MIA

Odds over time