YX 4345 · SDF → MIA

departs 3:58 PM ET · arrives 6:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 25% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

SDF (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4345 · SDF → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?