Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4355
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
YX 4355 · BDL → DCA
departs 6:50 PM ET · arrives 8:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave BDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BDL
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BDL (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.