Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4360
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
YX 4360 · DCA → ORD
departs 8:25 AM ET · arrives 10:01 AM CT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 10%
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.4d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
8am departures from DCA are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.08 in
ORD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.