YX 4361 · PHL → CMH

departs 9:50 PM ET · arrives 11:41 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 4h before departure

Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to CMH?

On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into CMH at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ 9pm departures from PHL are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

CMH (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4361 · PHL → CMH

Odds over time

How late will it get to CMH?