Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4361
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4361 · PHL → CMH
departs 9:50 PM ET · arrives 11:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 3:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sat 10/3 6%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 1 mi forecast at PHL that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
9pm departures from PHL are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CMH
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.23 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.