Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4361
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Today
YX 4361 · PHL → CMH
departs 9:50 PM ET · arrives 11:41 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 AM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/3 6%
Sun 10/4 23%
Mon 10/5 11%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7 8%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.0d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into CMH at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
CMH usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CMH (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.46 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.