Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4367 SCHEDULED · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

YX 4367 · DCA → BNA

departs 1:14 AM ET · arrives 1:32 AM CT

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 21h after departure

Arrive at BNA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at BNA that day

↑ Other factors

↑ Arrivals into BNA at that hour are often late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.35 in

BNA (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4367 · DCA → BNA

Odds over time