YX 4374 · BNA → DCA

departs 2:24 PM CT · arrives 5:31 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 1:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DCA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late

↑ 2pm departures from BNA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at BNA that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ YX's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

BNA (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.22 in

DCA (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility8 mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4374 · BNA → DCA

Odds over time

How late will it get to DCA?