Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4380
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 4380 · DCA → BOS
departs 1:00 PM ET · arrives 2:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 11:00 AM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 33%
Fri 10/2 12%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BOS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at BOS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BOS?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↑
Arrivals into BOS at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BOS
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.13 in
BOS (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.