Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4402
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4402 · MIA → SDF
departs 3:36 PM ET · arrives 6:21 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SDF (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,033 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.