Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4410
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4410 · GSP → MIA
departs 6:09 PM ET · arrives 8:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 4:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±3 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at GSP that day
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
6pm departures from GSP are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
GSP (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.44 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.