Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4410
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4410 · MIA → GSP
departs 3:30 PM ET · arrives 5:39 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 26h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±3 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at GSP that day
↑
3pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GSP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.