Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4423
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4423 · GSP → LGA
departs 4:14 PM ET · arrives 6:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 PM ET · 21h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 56%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 44%
Mon 10/5 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 400 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at GSP that day
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
GSP (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.44 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.