Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4423
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4 Tomorrow
YX 4423 · GSP → LGA
departs 5:59 PM ET · arrives 8:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 33%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
10%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
5.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
14%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
10%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGA that day
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
GSP (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 1.11 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.