Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4450
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
YX 4450 · MIA → GSP
departs 5:01 PM ET · arrives 7:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 12:00 AM ET · 17h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from MIA are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at GSP that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GSP (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.38 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.