Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4452
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 4452 · IND → DCA
departs 5:10 PM ET · arrives 7:00 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 10:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Fri 10/2 30%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 15%
Mon 10/5 17%
Tue 10/6 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
5pm departures from IND are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,233 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.