Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4462
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 4462 · LGA → CMH
departs 3:45 PM ET · arrives 5:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 PM ET · 52h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Fri 10/2 39%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 25%
Mon 10/5 22%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
3pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
LGA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.