YX 4465 · DCA → PIT

took off 11:01 AM ET · landed 11:43 AM ET (scheduled 11:02 AM ET → 12:25 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 11h after departure

Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PIT?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from DCA are often late

↑ 0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day

↑ This flight has been late 42% of the time recently

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.35 in

PIT (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4465 · DCA → PIT

Odds over time

How late did it get to PIT?