Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4486
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 4486 · LGA → PWM
departs 7:59 AM ET · arrives 9:22 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 9:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 7%
Fri 10/2 16%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 9%
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at PWM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PWM?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt
Ceiling 6,667 ft
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip 0.01 in
PWM (destination)
Gusts 10 kt
Ceiling 8,000 ft
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.