Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4486
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4486 · LGA → PWM
departs 8:55 AM ET · arrives 10:18 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 57h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 11%
Sat 10/3 7%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 9%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7 7%
Odds over time
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.5d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PWM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at PWM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PWM?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.05 in
PWM (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.