Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4493
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
YX 4493 · RDU → PIT
departs 7:00 PM ET · arrives 8:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 6:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 18%
Mon 10/5 13%
Fri 10/9 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+11 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +11 pts in 24h
+11 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at PIT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PIT?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at RDU that day
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
7pm departures from RDU are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
RDU (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.17 in
PIT (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.