YX 4509 · EYW → PHL

took off 2:39 PM ET · landed 5:29 PM ET (scheduled 2:32 PM ET → 5:57 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 6:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to PHL?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ EYW is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

EYW (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4509 · EYW → PHL

Odds over time

How late did it get to PHL?