Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4522 LANDED 2:03 PM ET, ~15 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

YX 4522 · DCA → JFK

took off 1:17 PM ET · landed 2:03 PM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 1pm departures from DCA are often late

↑ JFK is prone to delays

↓ Gusts to 25 kt forecast at JFK that day

↓ Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DCA (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.35 in

JFK (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling5,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4522 · DCA → JFK

Odds over time