Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4529
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 4529 · PIT → DCA
departs 6:05 AM ET · arrives 7:24 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Fri 10/2 9%
Sat 10/3
Mon 10/5 7%
Tue 10/6 5%
Wed 10/7 5%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.3d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
95%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from PIT are usually not late
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
DCA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 2,033 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.