Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4531
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4531 · PIT → RDU
departs 8:00 AM ET · arrives 9:26 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 2:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 5%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 5%
Tue 10/6 4%
Wed 10/7 5%
Thu 10/8 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
4%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
4%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.4d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 11,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.