Schedule: a typical summer Monday (the flights of Jul 27, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4531
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Monday, October 5
YX 4531 · PIT → RDU
departs 8:00 AM ET · arrives 9:26 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 4%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4 6%
Mon 10/5
Tue 10/6 4%
Wed 10/7 5%
Thu 10/8 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave PIT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at RDU that day
↓
Arrivals into RDU at that hour are usually not late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PIT
Weather at each end
PIT (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
RDU (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 0.11 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.