Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4536 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Saturday, October 3 Yesterday

YX 4536 · TUL → MIA

departs 4:37 PM CT · arrives 8:54 PM ET

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MIA?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ MIA is prone to delays

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL

Weather at each end

TUL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4536 · TUL → MIA

Odds over time

How late will it get to MIA?