tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4538 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

YX 4538 · JFK → DCA

departs 6:30 AM ET · arrives 7:59 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 7:00 PM ET · 36h before departure
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
7% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 3% 6% 9% 12% 4.4d 2d Now 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to DCA?

  1. On time or early
    92%
  2. 15–30 min late
    2%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    3%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    <1%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    2%
  6. Cancelled
    1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.