Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4549
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 4549 · SDF → DCA
departs 6:00 AM ET · arrives 7:45 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 6%
Thu 10/1 6%
Fri 10/2 9%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 7%
Mon 10/5 8%
Tue 10/6 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
6%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
6%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Leave SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SDF is prone to delays
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
6am departures from SDF are usually not late
Weather at each end
SDF (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 4,100 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.04 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.