Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4553
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
YX 4553 · DCA → ACK
departs 2:59 PM ET · arrives 4:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 5:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 28%
Mon 10/5 14%
Fri 10/9 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±0 pts
+25 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ACK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +25 pts in 24h
+25 pts
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed +15 pts in 24h
+15 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at ACK more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to ACK?
On time or early
59%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
Arrivals into ACK at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.36 in
ACK (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 2,300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.