Schedule: a typical Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4570
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3
YX 4570 · LGA → MVY
departs 11:25 AM ET · arrives 12:40 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 10:00 AM ET · 49h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 17%
Fri 10/2 11%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 13%
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.6d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at MVY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MVY?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MVY
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 7,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
MVY (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,733 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.