Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4570
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4570 · LGA → MVY
departs 12:10 PM ET · arrives 1:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 12:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Sat 10/3 8%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 12%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MVY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at MVY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MVY?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from LGA are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
LGA (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.05 in
MVY (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.