Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4570
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Today
YX 4570 · MVY → LGA
departs 1:10 PM ET · arrives 2:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 2:00 AM ET · 11h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sun 10/4 16%
Mon 10/5 19%
Fri 10/9 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MVY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from MVY are often late
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MVY (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.