Schedule: a typical summer Sunday (the flights of Jul 26, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4570
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Sunday, October 4
YX 4570 · MVY → LGA
departs 1:54 PM ET · arrives 3:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 1:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 31%
Sat 10/3 9%
Sun 10/4
Mon 10/5 21%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave MVY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↑
1pm departures from MVY are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Sundays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MVY (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip 0.05 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.