Schedule: a typical summer Friday (the flights of Jul 31, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4570
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 2 Yesterday
YX 4570 · MVY → LGA
departs 1:51 PM ET · arrives 3:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 10:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/2
Today 9%
Sun 10/4 19%
Mon 10/5 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
3.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MVY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at LGA that day
↑
LGA is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
MVY is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MVY (origin)
Gusts 27 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LGA (destination)
Gusts 25 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.