Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4627
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4627 · DCA → CMH
departs 7:00 AM ET · arrives 8:36 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 6%
Tue 10/6 4%
Wed 10/7 4%
Thu 10/8 4%
Odds over time
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.4d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CMH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at CMH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to CMH?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.41 in
CMH (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.