Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4638
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
YX 4638 · DCA → BUF
departs 8:00 PM ET · arrives 9:24 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±2 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 22% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.