Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4646
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
YX 4646 · BNA → MIA
departs 5:09 PM CT · arrives 8:44 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
MIA (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.