Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4653
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4653 · MIA → EYW
departs 9:55 AM ET · arrives 10:58 AM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 23h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.5d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at EYW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to EYW?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EYW
↑
EYW is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
Arrivals into EYW at that hour are usually not late
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EYW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.