Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4658
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4658 · JFK → RDU
departs 12:59 PM ET · arrives 2:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Sat 10/3
Sun 10/4 17%
Mon 10/5 10%
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7 11%
Thu 10/8 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.6d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave JFK more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 500 ft forecast at RDU that day
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
JFK is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK
Weather at each end
JFK (origin)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 4,333 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.15 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.