tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: a typical Wednesday (the flights of Jul 29, 2026, re-dated). Real flights replace these once the FAA publishes them, usually about a day ahead.

REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4658 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL ODDS

YX 4658 · JFK → RDU

departs 12:59 PM ET · arrives 2:57 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 157h before departure

Typical odds Too early for a weather forecast — these are typical odds for this flight on a Wednesday in October, from the weather this date has had in past years (the range shows how much they varied). They’ll switch to forecast-based odds about 3 days before departure.

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
11% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Low. This is mostly a starting point from history; weather forecasts haven't kicked in yet.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% Now 2d 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to RDU?

  1. On time or early
    87%
  2. 15–30 min late
    2%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    4%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    3%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    2%
  6. Cancelled
    2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.