Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4684
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4684 · EYW → MIA
departs 1:39 PM ET · arrives 2:36 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 AM ET · 27h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±2 pts
−4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MIA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MIA?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EYW
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
EYW (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.04 in
MIA (destination)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.