Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4684
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4684 · MIA → EYW
departs 12:00 PM ET · arrives 1:08 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 18h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
18%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
18%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.6d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EYW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Leave MIA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at EYW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to EYW?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at EYW
↑
This flight has been late 30% of the time recently
↑
EYW is prone to delays
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MIA
Weather at each end
MIA (origin)
Gusts 23 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
EYW (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.09 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.