Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4686 · DCA → HHH
departs 1:59 PM ET · arrives 3:53 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 7:00 AM ET · 31h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Tue 10/6 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at HHH more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HHH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at HHH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HHH?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at HHH that day
↑
1pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at DCA
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
DCA is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,200 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.05 in
HHH (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.28 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.