Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4686
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
YX 4686 · HHH → DCA
departs 4:28 PM ET · arrives 6:18 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 6h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±0 pts
−7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave HHH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at DCA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to DCA?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DCA at that hour are often late
↑
0.4 in of rain forecast at DCA that day
↑
HHH is prone to delays
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
YX's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
HHH (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 1,200 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.02 in
DCA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.