YX 4693 · MCI → MIA

took off 4:40 PM CT · landed 8:18 PM ET (scheduled 4:32 PM CT → 9:04 PM ET)

Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 4h after departure

Arrive at MIA more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MIA?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MIA at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ YX's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at MCI

Weather at each end

MCI (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MIA (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

YX 4693 · MCI → MIA

Odds over time

How late did it get to MIA?