Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4769
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Tomorrow
YX 4769 · DCA → ROC
departs 5:59 PM ET · arrives 7:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 24h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.8d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ROC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at ROC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ROC?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↓
YX's recent on-time record
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.21 in
ROC (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.