Schedule: a typical summer Saturday (the flights of Jul 25, 2026), re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
REPUBLIC · FLIGHT YX 4773
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Saturday, October 3 Yesterday
YX 4773 · DCA → LGA
departs 2:54 PM ET · arrives 4:28 PM ET
Forecast issued Sat 10:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Sat 10/3
Today 38%
Mon 10/5 44%
Fri 10/9 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave DCA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at LGA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to LGA?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
2pm departures from DCA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late
↓
Saturdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA
Weather at each end
DCA (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 3,900 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.35 in
LGA (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.